Is the UK Financially Ready for War with Russia?
As geopolitical tensions escalate across Eastern Europe, the specter of a direct confrontation between NATO and Russia — particularly in the wake of Russia’s prolonged war in Ukraine — has sharpened focus on the readiness of Western nations. Among them, the United Kingdom, a key NATO member, is reassessing its military capabilities. But beyond troop levels and equipment inventories, one vital dimension requires scrutiny: Is the UK financially prepared for a large-scale war with Russia?
Defense Spending in Context
The UK consistently ranks among the top defense spenders globally, with an annual defense budget of approximately £55 billion in 2024, roughly 2.2% of its GDP. While this meets NATO’s baseline target, it pales in comparison to Russia’s wartime mobilization, where military spending has surged to over 6% of GDP.
Despite the UK’s longstanding investment in its armed forces, much of the current budget is allocated toward long-term procurement programs, including the renewal of the Trident nuclear deterrent, modernization of naval assets, and investment in cyber capabilities. Immediate readiness — such as munitions stockpiles, logistics, and surge capacity — remains underfunded.
Supply Chains and Industrial Base
War readiness is not simply a matter of cash on hand; it’s also about production capability. The UK’s defense industrial base has atrophied over decades of peacetime assumptions and procurement globalization. The war in Ukraine has revealed how quickly modern warfare depletes stockpiles of artillery shells, missiles, and drones — many of which the UK has in limited quantities.
The British government has recently announced increases in defense manufacturing investment, including new contracts for artillery shell production. However, scaling these efforts to wartime levels — comparable to what would be needed in a full conflict with Russia — would take years and require billions in emergency spending. The Treasury has not yet committed to this level of financial flexibility.
Fiscal Space and Economic Resilience
The UK’s public finances are already under pressure from post-pandemic debt, inflation, and a sluggish growth outlook. As of early 2025, public sector net debt hovers around 97% of GDP. Interest payments on government borrowing have risen sharply due to higher interest rates.
A major war would necessitate emergency borrowing or tax increases to fund rapid military expansion. However, the UK’s fiscal space — its ability to raise funds without destabilizing markets — is limited. Credit rating agencies have warned about Britain’s fiscal trajectory, and any aggressive war-financing strategy could spook investors, raise borrowing costs, or even trigger a currency depreciation.
Comparison with Allies
By comparison, the United States and Germany are already mobilizing larger defense budgets, with the US passing a $950 billion defense bill and Germany exceeding its 2% target for the first time in decades. If a war broke out, the UK’s financial contribution would be smaller in relative and absolute terms, raising questions about its capacity to sustain operations independently.
Political Will and Public Support
Financial readiness also depends on political consensus. The UK government under both Conservative and Labour leadership has affirmed commitment to NATO and deterrence. However, there remains significant political resistance to large increases in defense spending, particularly when balanced against domestic priorities like the NHS, housing, and cost-of-living concerns.
A wartime reallocation of spending would require strong public backing, which currently remains lukewarm outside the political elite.
Conclusion: Not Yet Ready
From a financial perspective, the UK is not currently ready for war with Russia. While it maintains a solid peacetime defense budget and global military presence, it lacks the industrial scale, fiscal headroom, and political mandate to quickly transition to a wartime economy. Substantial new investments, supply chain reinvigoration, and public re-engagement with national defense would be essential steps if a serious threat materialized.
The UK is not alone in this. Many NATO countries are grappling with similar gaps between rhetoric and readiness. But unless addressed swiftly, financial unreadiness could become a critical vulnerability in the face of Russian aggression.